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Atlantic hurricane season stays quiet as predicted

Improved model, new surge forecast products and research projects debuted November 24, 2014

The Atlantic hurricane season will officially end November 30, and will be remembered as a relatively quiet season as was predicted. Still, the season afforded NOAA scientists with opportunities to produce new forecast products, showcase successful modeling advancements, and conduct research to benefit future forecasts.

“Fortunately, much of the U.S. coastline was spared this year with only one landfalling hurricane along the East Coast. Nevertheless, we know that’s not always going to be the case,” said Louis Uccellini, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The ‘off season’ between now and the start of next year’s hurricane season is the best time for communities to refine their response plans and for businesses and individuals to make sure they’re prepared for any potential storm.”

How the Atlantic Basin seasonal outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center verified:

ActualAugust OutlookMay Outlook
Named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher)87-128-13
Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher)63-63-6
Major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, 5; winds of at least 111 mph)20-21-2

“A combination of atmospheric conditions acted to suppress the Atlantic hurricane season, including very strong vertical wind shear, combined with increased atmospheric stability, stronger sinking motion and drier air across the tropical Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Also, the West African monsoon was near- to below average, making it more difficult for African easterly waves to develop.”