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Slightly above average activity expected for the 2018 hurricane season

We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above-average activity. The current weak La Niņa event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niņo event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.




Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010

Median (in parentheses)

Issue Date 5 April 2018

Named Storms (NS) (12.0)


Hurricanes (H) (6.5)


Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)



By Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell

In Memory of William M. Gray