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Slightly below average activity expected for the 2019 hurricane season


We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niņo event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 

 

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010

Average (in parentheses)

Issue Date 4 April 2019

Named Storms (NS) (12.1)

13

Hurricanes (H) (6.4)

5

Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7)

2

 

By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones

In Memory of William M. Gray