Forecast Discussion
UPDATED: July-06-2026 7:59pm
Key Messages:
- The presence of Saharan Dust in the atmosphere.
- Moderate winds due to the tightening of the pressure gradient.
- Moderate seas conditions can become occasionally rough over the weekend.
- The influence of a tropical wave from Friday.
Nowcast (Tonight):
Short Term Forecast (Tuesday through Thursday):
Moisture lingers in the northwestern Caribbean and localized instability is expected due to daytime heating. Therefore, occasionally cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers are expected with the possibility of the isolated thunder.
Winds are expected to maintain moderate speeds from a generally east-northeast direction.
Dust is expected to also linger in varying concentrations through this time as well. Its presence should have a drying effect in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, inhibiting sustained showers. Dust also can have a warming effect on the atmosphere. Therefore, warmer nights are possible as well as a higher daytime heat index, possibly maintaining near 105°F or exceeding it.
Long Term Forecast (Friday and Saturday):
An active tropical wave is expected in the western Caribbean on Friday, which can bring cloudy skies with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with potential for rainfall accumulation in excess of 20mm. Monitoring of this system as it approaches the Cayman area would determine the relevance of any advisories for thunderstorms and flooding.
Winds are expected to be generally easterly at moderate speeds with fresh gusts.
Marine Forecast:
As a ridge of high pressure slowly builds, thus tightening the pressure gradient, seas are expected to respond to the increase in wind speed. Thus, moderate wave heights are expected through Thursday and occasionally rough conditions from Friday and through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is expected to be issued from Friday for the weekend.
Forecaster: Wellington
*This discussion is updated 7pm daily.