Weekly Synopsis

Forecast Discussion

UPDATED:  05 November 2026 | 7:00 p.m.

KEY MESSAGES

•    A decrease in the chance of cloudiness and showers is expected overnight with fair to partly cloudy skies and a low chance of showers for the weekend.
•    Light to moderate winds are expected to persist through the period as the pressure gradient tightens across the western Caribbean.

Nowcast (Tonight)

A decrease in moisture along with the weakening of the influence of an area of low-pressure over the Cayman area will support fewer showers expected overnight. Winds will be moderate northeasterly with higher gusts. 

Short Term Forecast (Wednesday through Friday)

Models are in agreement with a decrease in precipitable water along with a decrease in moisture within the mid to upper-levels overnight into the early morning as a drier airmass located over the western Atlantic Ocean drifts into the northwest Caribbean. Into the afternoon the airmass is expected to move further south further lowering precipitable water through the day. Therefore, partly cloudy skies and a decreasing chance in showers are expected for Friday. The dry airmass is expected to linger over the Cayman area through the weekend and support fair skies along with a low chance of showers. A cold front currently over the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to dissipate as it moves south and approaches the Yucatan Channel Sunday morning with the dry airmass following behind the frontal boundary additionally entering the northwest Caribbean. Moderate northeasterly winds with higher gusts are forecast for the period. Rainfall accumulation is expected to be less than 5mm per day for the period.
Extended Forecast (Saturday and Sunday)

For the extended period, the model diverge on the return of precipitable water into the northwest Caribbean for Tuesday. The dry airmass is expected to linger over the northwest Caribbean through Monday, with precipitable water and moisture in the mid-levels remaining low, therefore, continuing to support the chance of fair to partly cloudy skies and a low chance of showers. However, on Tuesday ECMWF maintains the dry airmass over the Cayman area, while GFS indicates advection of moisture from the southern Caribbean into our area from early Tuesday morning. Therefore, there is some disagreement on precipitation for Tuesday. Rainfall accumulation indicates less than 5mm for Monday, ECMWF indicating less than 5mm and GFS indicating 10-15mm for the Sister Islands with a local max of 1-2 inches to their southeast. Moderate northeasterly winds with higher gusts are expected to continue for Monday. As the high pressure system over the eastern United States is expected to slightly weaken from Tuesday morning, the pressure gradient over the northwest Caribbean will weaken slightly with moderate to light northeasterly winds expected from Tuesday.   

Marine Forecast: 

Generally favourable marine conditions are expected through much of the forecast period, with seas remaining predominantly slight. 

Forecasters
Forbes