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Forecast Discussion
UPDATED: May-07-2026 6:31pm
Key Messages:
- Drier and more stable atmosphere through Saturday, keeping chances for showers low.
- Localized showers remain possible.
- Increase in possibility of showers from Sunday.
Nowcast (Tonight):
A broad ridge is dominant over the Northern Caribbean. Generally dry and stable atmospheric conditions persist. Thus, conditions are expected to remain fair and may become partly cloudy during the morning.
Short Term Forecast (Friday through Sunday):
Fair to partly cloudy skies would persist with a low chance of showers. These showers may be due to daytime heating and low-level perturbations over the islands. On Sunday, minor changes in the dominant features may provide some enhancement for shallow convection and the possible increase in the probability of showery activity. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to above average, reaching and at times exceeding 31C/88F.
Long Term Forecast (Monday through Tuesday):
Some low level troughing is expected which would increase the probability of showers with rainfall accumulations of 0-5mm possible. As cloud amount and humidity increases, heat index can also increase to, or even exceed, 100F.
Marine Forecast:
Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the marine waters, thus maintaining slight to moderate sea conditions.
Forecaster Wellington
*This discussion is updated at 7 pm daily