East to southeast at 5 knots or less.
Smooth with a wave height of fewer than 2 feet.
CSU released its second forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday, July 9.
We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active.
We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2024
| Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses) | Issue Date 3 August 2023 |
| Named Storms (NS) (14.4) | 25 |
| Hurricanes (H) (7.2) | 12 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (3.2) | 6 |
By: CSU University Communications Staff