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Today's Forecast As of 5 Dec 2023 1:36 PM
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06:46 17:45
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Hurricane Season 2019

2019 Hurricane Season Predictions
Slightly below average activity expected for the 2019 hurricane season

Slightly below average activity expected for the 2019 hurricane season

We anticipate that the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly below normal activity. The current weak El Niño event appears likely to persist and perhaps even strengthen this summer/fall. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the tropical Atlantic are slightly below normal, and the far North Atlantic is anomalously cool. Our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is below its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010

Average (in parentheses)

Issue Date 4 April 2019
Named Storms (NS) (12.1)13
Hurricanes (H) (6.4)5
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7)2

By Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell and Jhordanne Jones

In Memory of William M. Gray

2019 Atlantic Storm Names

Atlantic Storm Names

STORM NAME

DATES ACTIVE

STAGE

Andrea

May 20 - 21

STS

Barry

Jul 11 - 15 

H

Three

Jul 22 - 23

TD

Chantal

Aug 20 - 23

TS

Dorian

Aug 24 - Sep 7 

MH

Erin

Aug 26 - 29

TS

Fernand

Sep 3 - 5

TS

Gabrielle

Sep 3 - 10 

TS

Humberto 

Sep 13 - 19 

MH

Jerry

Sep 17 - 24

H

Imelda

Sep 17 - 19

TS

Karen

Sep 22 - 27

TS

Lorenzo

Sep 23 - Oct 2

MH

Melissa

Oct 11 - 14 

TS

Fifteen

Oct 14 - 16

TD

Nestor

Oct 18 - 19

TS

Pablo

Oct 25 - 28

H

Olga

Oct 25

TS

Rebekah

Oct 30 - Nov 1

STS

Sebastien

Nov 19 - 24

TS

TD - TROPICAL DEPRESSION

TS - TROPICAL STORM

STS - SUB-TROPICAL STORM

H - HURRICANE

MH - MAYOR HURRICANE

 

 

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season summary:

 

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth consecutive above-average and damaging season dating back to 2016. However, many were weak and short-lived, especially towards the end of the season. Six of those named storms achieved hurricane status, while three intensified into major hurricanes.   Two storms became Category 5 hurricanes, marking the fourth consecutive season with at least one Category 5 hurricane, the third consecutive season to feature at least one storm making landfall at Category 5 intensity, and the seventh on record to have multiple tropical cyclones reaching Category 5 strength. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20, making this the fifth consecutive year in which a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed outside of the official season.