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Current Weather
  • 79o F
  • Rainfall Accumulated 0 mm
  • Wind Speed 10.9 knots
  • Wind Direction ENE
  • Humidity 76%
  • Pressure 1017.6 millibars
Today's Forecast As of 28 Jan 2023 2:51 AM
Partly Cloudy
Night
Partly Cloudy
Min 75o F | Max 80o F
07:01 18:15
  • Northeast at 15 to 20 knots.

  • Rough with a wave height of 4 to 6 feet.

    Small craft should exercise caution over open water

Table 6

Table 6: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Ivan, 9-14 August 2004.

Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecasts are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.

Forecast Technique

Period (hours)

12

24

36

48

72

96

120

CLP5

25 (62)

51 (60)

86 (58)

121 (55)

175 (51)

229 (47)

296 (44)

GFNI

27 (57)

57 (55)

95 (55)

134 (53)

219 (49)

325 (45)

443 (41)

GFDI

28 (60)

52 (58)

77 (57)

94 (55)

147 (51)

204 (47)

261 (43)

GFDL

29 (61)

52 (59)

76 (57)

92 (56)

136 (52)

195 (48)

252 (44)

GFDN

29 (56)

51 (54)

79 (53)

118 (53)

198 (49)

298 (45)

412 (41)

GFSI

29 (60)

55 (58)

79 (57)

100 (55)

154 (51)

212 (47)

285 (43)

GFSO

32 (63)

56 (61)

80 (58)

99 (56)

147 (52)

198 (48)

268 (43)

AEMI

27 (60)

49 (58)

73 (57)

95 (55)

151 (51)

203 (47)

252 (43)

NGPI

26 (59)

54 (57)

86 (56)

119 (54)

200 (50)

304 (46)

449 (42)

NGPS

29 (61)

52 (59)

82 (56)

109 (54)

186 (50)

278 (46)

413 (42)

UKMI

24 (58)

47 (56)

72 (55)

92 (53)

147 (49)

214 (45)

286 (41)

UKM

26 (30)

44 (29)

66 (28)

87 (28)

133 (26)

189 (24)

279 (22)

A98E

27 (61)

43 (59)

72 (57)

103 (55)

179 (51)

248 (47)

349 (44)

A9UK

27 (28)

43 (27)

71 (26)

95 (25)

149 (23)

 

 

BAMD

31 (61)

54 (59)

78 (57)

96 (55)

147 (51)

219 (47)

300 (44)

BAMM

32 (61)

53 (59)

86 (57)

116 (55)

172 (51)

214 (47)

283 (44)

BAMS

48 (61)

93 (59)

142 (57)

179 (55)

236 (51)

251 (47)

286 (44)

CONU

22 (60)

47 (58)

74 (57)

97 (55)

154 (51)

224 (47)

307 (43)

GUNA

22 (58)

45 (56)

71 (55)

92 (53)

147 (49)

213 (45)

289 (41)

FSSE

21 (53)

38 (51)

58 (51)

81 (51)

126 (47)

171 (43)

199 (38)

OFCL

24 (63)

47 (61)

79 (59)

108 (56)

161 (52)

222 (48)

289 (44)

NHC Official, 1994 - 2003 mean (number of cases)

44 (3172)

78 (2894)

112 (2636)

146 (2368)

217 (1929)

248 (421)

319 (341)