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Today's Forecast As of 1 Dec 2021 11:20 PM
Partly Cloudy
72o F
Partly Cloudy
Min 72o F | Max 84o F
  • Northeast at 10 to 15 knots.

  • Moderate with a wave height of 3 to 5 feet.

06:43 17:45

Table 6

Table 6: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Ivan, 9-14 August 2004.

Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecasts are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.

Forecast Technique

Period (hours)

12

24

36

48

72

96

120

CLP5

25 (62)

51 (60)

86 (58)

121 (55)

175 (51)

229 (47)

296 (44)

GFNI

27 (57)

57 (55)

95 (55)

134 (53)

219 (49)

325 (45)

443 (41)

GFDI

28 (60)

52 (58)

77 (57)

94 (55)

147 (51)

204 (47)

261 (43)

GFDL

29 (61)

52 (59)

76 (57)

92 (56)

136 (52)

195 (48)

252 (44)

GFDN

29 (56)

51 (54)

79 (53)

118 (53)

198 (49)

298 (45)

412 (41)

GFSI

29 (60)

55 (58)

79 (57)

100 (55)

154 (51)

212 (47)

285 (43)

GFSO

32 (63)

56 (61)

80 (58)

99 (56)

147 (52)

198 (48)

268 (43)

AEMI

27 (60)

49 (58)

73 (57)

95 (55)

151 (51)

203 (47)

252 (43)

NGPI

26 (59)

54 (57)

86 (56)

119 (54)

200 (50)

304 (46)

449 (42)

NGPS

29 (61)

52 (59)

82 (56)

109 (54)

186 (50)

278 (46)

413 (42)

UKMI

24 (58)

47 (56)

72 (55)

92 (53)

147 (49)

214 (45)

286 (41)

UKM

26 (30)

44 (29)

66 (28)

87 (28)

133 (26)

189 (24)

279 (22)

A98E

27 (61)

43 (59)

72 (57)

103 (55)

179 (51)

248 (47)

349 (44)

A9UK

27 (28)

43 (27)

71 (26)

95 (25)

149 (23)

 

 

BAMD

31 (61)

54 (59)

78 (57)

96 (55)

147 (51)

219 (47)

300 (44)

BAMM

32 (61)

53 (59)

86 (57)

116 (55)

172 (51)

214 (47)

283 (44)

BAMS

48 (61)

93 (59)

142 (57)

179 (55)

236 (51)

251 (47)

286 (44)

CONU

22 (60)

47 (58)

74 (57)

97 (55)

154 (51)

224 (47)

307 (43)

GUNA

22 (58)

45 (56)

71 (55)

92 (53)

147 (49)

213 (45)

289 (41)

FSSE

21 (53)

38 (51)

58 (51)

81 (51)

126 (47)

171 (43)

199 (38)

OFCL

24 (63)

47 (61)

79 (59)

108 (56)

161 (52)

222 (48)

289 (44)

NHC Official, 1994 - 2003 mean (number of cases)

44 (3172)

78 (2894)

112 (2636)

146 (2368)

217 (1929)

248 (421)

319 (341)