National Weather Service
For a better view on National Weather Service, Update Your Browser.
Alerts
  • We are currently upgrading our satellite system. Images will be intermittently offline. We apologize for any inconvenience.
Current Weather
  • 91o F Feels Like 101o F
  • 24 Hr Rainfall Accumulation 0 mm
  • Wind Speed 9.5 knots
  • Wind Direction SE
  • Humidity 61%
  • Pressure 1016.2 millibars
Today's Forecast As of 19 Jun 2025 2:39 PM
Partly Cloudy
Afternoon
Partly Cloudy
Min 81o F | Max 91o F
  • Partly Cloudy
    Evening
    Partly Cloudy
    Min 81o F | Max 86o F
  • Partly Cloudy
    Night
    Partly Cloudy
    Min 81o F | Max 84o F
05:49 19:04
  • East at 15 to 20 knots.

  • Moderate to rough with a wave height of 4 to 6 feet.

    Small craft should exercise caution over open water

Table 6

Table 6: Preliminary forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Ivan, 9-14 August 2004.

Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecasts are shown in bold-face type. Verification includes the depression stage.

Forecast Technique

Period (hours)

12

24

36

48

72

96

120

CLP5

25 (62)

51 (60)

86 (58)

121 (55)

175 (51)

229 (47)

296 (44)

GFNI

27 (57)

57 (55)

95 (55)

134 (53)

219 (49)

325 (45)

443 (41)

GFDI

28 (60)

52 (58)

77 (57)

94 (55)

147 (51)

204 (47)

261 (43)

GFDL

29 (61)

52 (59)

76 (57)

92 (56)

136 (52)

195 (48)

252 (44)

GFDN

29 (56)

51 (54)

79 (53)

118 (53)

198 (49)

298 (45)

412 (41)

GFSI

29 (60)

55 (58)

79 (57)

100 (55)

154 (51)

212 (47)

285 (43)

GFSO

32 (63)

56 (61)

80 (58)

99 (56)

147 (52)

198 (48)

268 (43)

AEMI

27 (60)

49 (58)

73 (57)

95 (55)

151 (51)

203 (47)

252 (43)

NGPI

26 (59)

54 (57)

86 (56)

119 (54)

200 (50)

304 (46)

449 (42)

NGPS

29 (61)

52 (59)

82 (56)

109 (54)

186 (50)

278 (46)

413 (42)

UKMI

24 (58)

47 (56)

72 (55)

92 (53)

147 (49)

214 (45)

286 (41)

UKM

26 (30)

44 (29)

66 (28)

87 (28)

133 (26)

189 (24)

279 (22)

A98E

27 (61)

43 (59)

72 (57)

103 (55)

179 (51)

248 (47)

349 (44)

A9UK

27 (28)

43 (27)

71 (26)

95 (25)

149 (23)

 

 

BAMD

31 (61)

54 (59)

78 (57)

96 (55)

147 (51)

219 (47)

300 (44)

BAMM

32 (61)

53 (59)

86 (57)

116 (55)

172 (51)

214 (47)

283 (44)

BAMS

48 (61)

93 (59)

142 (57)

179 (55)

236 (51)

251 (47)

286 (44)

CONU

22 (60)

47 (58)

74 (57)

97 (55)

154 (51)

224 (47)

307 (43)

GUNA

22 (58)

45 (56)

71 (55)

92 (53)

147 (49)

213 (45)

289 (41)

FSSE

21 (53)

38 (51)

58 (51)

81 (51)

126 (47)

171 (43)

199 (38)

OFCL

24 (63)

47 (61)

79 (59)

108 (56)

161 (52)

222 (48)

289 (44)

NHC Official, 1994 - 2003 mean (number of cases)

44 (3172)

78 (2894)

112 (2636)

146 (2368)

217 (1929)

248 (421)

319 (341)