Hurricane Season 2024
Hurricane Season 2024 Predictions
CSU released its first seasonal forecast for 2024 on Thursday, April 4. We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active.
We have slightly increased our forecast and continue to call for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain near record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. We anticipate cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season. This forecast is of above-normal confidence. We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2024
| Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses) | Issued Date 4 April 2024 |
| Named Storms (NS) (14.4) | 25 |
| Hurricanes (H) (7.2) | 12 |
| Major Hurricanes (MH) (3.2) | 6 |
By: CSU University Communications Staff
2024 Atlantic Storm Names
STORM NAME | DATES ACTIVE | STAGE |
Alberto | June 19 - 20 | TS |
Beryl | June 28 - July 9 | MH |
Chris | June 30 - July 01 | TS |
Debby | August 3 - 8 | H |
Ernesto | August 12 - 20 | H |
Francine | September 9 - 12 | H |
Gordon | September 11 - 17 | TS |
Helene | September 24 - 27 | MH |
Isaac | September 26 - 30 | H |
Joyce | September 27 - 30 | TS |
Kirk | September 29 - October 7 | MH |
Leslie | October 2 - 12 | H |
Milton | October 5 - 10 | MH |
Nadine | October 19 - 20 | TS |
Oscar | October 19 - 22 | H |
Patty | November 1 - 4 | TS |
Rafael | November 4 - 10 | MH |
Sara | November 14 - 18 | TS |
Tony | - | - |
Valerie | - | - |
William | - | - |
- TD - TROPICAL DEPRESSION
- TS - TROPICAL STORM
- STS - SUBTROPICAL STORM
- H - HURRICANE
- MH - MAJOR HURRICANE
End of Season Summary
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was a hyperactive season based on NOAA’s definition, with hurricanes and major hurricanes well above the 1991–2020 average. Our seasonal hurricane forecasts issued in 2024 were generally a modest over forecast of activity that occurred. The season’s most significant continental US hurricanes were Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which devastated the southeast US. The record warm Atlantic combined with cool neutral ENSO led to broadly hurricane-favorable conditions in 2024, although with a marked peak season lull in activity.