Northeast at 10 to 15 knots.
Moderate with a wave height of 3 to 5 feet.
An above average activity expected for the 2020 hurricane season
Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2020, citing the likely absence of El Niño as a primary factor. Tropical and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than their long-term average values and are consequently also considered a factor favoring an active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Pacific currently has warm neutral ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions; that is, the waters are slightly warmer than normal in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. CSU currently anticipates that these waters are likely to cool relative to their long-term averages over the next several months. Consequently, they do not anticipate El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form. The tropical Atlantic is somewhat warmer than normal right now. Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic provide more fuel for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. They are also associated with a more unstable atmosphere as well as moister air, both of which favor organized thunderstorm activity that is necessary for hurricane development.
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019
|Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010 Average (in parentheses)||Issue Date 2 April 2020|
|Named Storms (NS) (12.1)||16|
|Hurricanes (H) (6.4)||8|
|Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.7)||4|
By: CSU University Communications Staff